【招银国际】China Economy: On track for a moderate recovery-250318（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 18 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy On track for a moderate recovery O n rack for a moderate recov ery Ch

2、inas economy continues its path of recovery as 2M25 activity data came in mostly better than market expectation.Retail sales edged up thanks to the expansion of trade-in scheme eligibility.Industrial output mildly moderated while fixed asset investments notably accelerated driven by robust infrastru

3、cture and manufacturing investments.The contraction in sales narrowed moderately while housing start further slumped.The ongoing policy support on household consumption,equity market and housing market should support continuous recovery in 2025.However,the economy may face increasing pressure headin

4、g into 4Q25,as the effects from policy stimulus gradually diminish and headwinds from trade tensions intensify.We expect Chinas GDP growth to decelerate from 5.1%in 9M25 to 4.5%in 4Q25 with full-year growth at 4.9%.China may maintain accommodative policy as the PBOC may cut RRR by 50bps soon in 2Q25

5、 and LPRs by 20bps in 2H25.Housing supply and demand rebalance goes on as demand improves while supply continues to slump.Gross floor area(GFA)sold for commercial housing narrowed its YoY decline to 5.1%in 2M25 from 12.9%in 12M24,while GFA started further dropped 29.6%in 2M25 after decreasing 23%in

6、12M24.Housing demand recovery was also uneven as second-hand housing sales performed better than new housing sales and higher-tier cities performed better than lower-tier cities.The recovery rate of second-hand housing sales compared to 2018-2019 in 11 selective cities remained strong at over 130%ye