【国泰君安证券(香港)】Stock Market to Level Off Before Lunar New Year-250105（2页）.pdf

1、Please read the last page for explanation of ratings and disclaimer January 5th,2025 Stock Market A-Share Market Strategy Weekly Stock Market to Level Off Before Lunar New Year FANG Yi(analyst)HUANG Weichi(analyst)TIAN Kaixuan(analyst)021-38031658 021-38032684 021-38038673 S0880118080080 S0880520110

2、005 S0880122080038 Summary:China A-share market may level off before the Lunar New Year 2025.Subject to the recent decline of risk appetite,the A-share market has been moving downward.In the past three months,the key driver of the stock market had been the rising risk tolerance as a result of better

3、 market expectations for government policies,despite the impacts from macroeconomic performance,business profit growth and geopolitical frictions.As the expectations for government policies remain“relatively constant”this spring,the“Trump Impacts”,the new-starts and business earnings,as well as the

4、regulatory pressure on stock transactions,may amplify the uncertainties and drag down the stock market.But following the release of risks,the market is expected to level off before the Lunar New Year,and start to rebound afterwards driven by the seasonal recovery of monetary liquidity and the expect

5、ations for the release of new policies after the NPC and CPPCC this March.The“Trump Impacts”,when at high,will bring contrarian investment opportunities.On January 3rd,the new US Congress commenced operation.On January 20th,Trump will take over the White House and renew his regime.Based on his“Ameri

6、ca First”program in 2024,Trump proposed 10%tariff hike on the world and 60%tariff hike on China and continued export sanctions against China so as encourage the return of high-end manufacturing industries back to US.Although the long-term US-China conflicts have already been priced in by the market,