【研报】休闲服务行业：疫情影响下酒店业绩详细分拆测算-20200220[15页].pdf

1、 / / 1 10%3-6 1-2 2020 2 / 70%3 2020Q1-Q4 -3.5/4.5/6.2/4.02020 11.2/-22% 2020 + 12020Q3 2021 2 vs 3A EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 28.19 1.13 1.23 0.92 24.95 22.92 30.64 17.80 0.88 0.87 0.64 20.23 20.46 28.03 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019

2、/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -10.81% -3.73% 10.71% -8.47% -7.56% -7.04% 34 3405 3117 32.82 3.70 1384 95 % 45.13 2020: 2019-11-29 2020:/ / 2019-11-20 2019: & 2019-09-09 S0550517110003 (021)20361142 S0550519080008 18801903371 / 2020-02-20 2 / 15 1. 3-6 . 4 2. . 5 2.1.Q1RevPAR50%Q2. 5 2.2. 7

3、2.3.12%2% . 8 2.4. 9 2.5. 10 2.6.& . 11 3. . 12 4. . 13 qRtMrRtPnQoQpNmNtMvMsNbRdNaQpNrRoMqQkPrRpNlOsQtO8OnNvNwMnOrPuOmQpM 3 / 15 1 20132020. 4 2 . 4 3-. 5 4-. 5 5- . 6 6- . 6 7-. 6 8-. 6 9- . 6 10- . 6 11-. 7 12- . 7 13. 8 14 . 8 15. 8 16 . 8 17 . 9 18/. 9 19. 9 20&-70% . 10 21&- . 10 22. 10 23. 10

4、 24 . 11 25 . 11 26-70% . 11 27- . 11 12020. 7 22020 . 7 32020. 12 4 / 15 1. 3-6 202012020H1 -82019H224 12 -116 1 20132020 20032002124 200372019 121 3-658 2020H1 2 5 / 15 2. 110% 3-61-2 2020 2 /70% 3 2020H1 / 2020Q1-Q4-3.5/4.5/6.2/4.02020 11.2/-22%2000 2020Q1-Q4-2.3 /3.0/4.1/2.720207.38/-26% 2.1. 20

5、19Q42020Q1RevPAR 2019Q42020Q1 3- 4- 6 / 15 5- 6- 2020Q1/2020Q2115 115-22910% 23/4/5/6 60%/80%/90%/95%4%/3%/2%/1% 3-6RevPAR42%/22%/12%/6%Q3 2020Q1-Q4 RevPAR-56%/-8%/-3%/-1.2%RevPAR -57%/-10%/-0.8%/1.3% 7- 8- 9- 10- 7 / 15 2.2. / 20202020Q1 1/6115Q2-Q4 85%/93%/100%2020731vs. 1018 12020 20Q120Q220Q320Q

6、4 629 620 612 602 597 592 587 582 -14 -9 -8 -10 -5 -5 -5 -5 8788899091929394 11111111 3,360 3,345 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 3,348 18 -15 3 00000 2,300 2,546 2,857 3,132 3,381 3,641 3,914 4,166 65%61%57%50%47%43%37%33% 212 246 311 275 249 260 273 251 19Q119Q219Q319Q4 22020 20Q120Q220Q320Q4 629 62