1、EQUITY:ALTERNATIVE ENERGYChina solar and ESSGlobal Markets Research7 December 20242025F outlookSolar demand growth likely to moderate,remain positive on ESS demand growthSolar installations growth likely to moderate in 2025FWe expect global solar installations to grow 13%y-y to 475GW in 2024F,follow

2、ed by growth moderating to 8%y-y in 2025F,mainly fueled by robust demand growth in emerging markets such as India and the Middle East,offset by sluggish demand growth in China.We expect demand from both the US and EU markets to remain resilient in 2025F,while we see some downside risks to demand gro

3、wth from policy uncertainties around likely subsidy cuts for renewable projects and more trade restrictions for solar products.Module price prepared for upward revision,depressed domestic capex in 2025FWe have observed sequential m-m production cuts in the upstream polysilicon sector before the year

4、-end,as a result of seasonal hikes in utility prices,in our view.Meanwhile,we expect the continued inventory pressure to curb the recovery of prices for polysilicon amid sluggish demand in the short term.For downstream modules,we expect the leading module producers making attempts to hike prices gra

5、dually,in response to industry calls of self-discipline.Meanwhile,with end-demand entering into a seasonally low level in 1Q25F,we suggest investors to continually monitor the sustainability of price recovery.On the other hand,we believe the leading players may partially pass-through the impact of e

6、xport VAT refund rate cut to overseas customers,while small players could face more pressure.We expect domestic capex spending to remain weak in 2025F owing to cash flow conservation and stricter government regulations.Preliminary AD/CVD results for ASEAN countries in line,likely shift to Middle Eas