1、North America Equity Research01 August 2025J P M O R G A NAdvanced Air MobilityUS-Based eVTOLs Decoupled From Fundamentals;Expect a Correction EventuallyClean Tech/Metals&MiningBill Peterson AC(1-415)315-Mahima Kakani(1-212)622-Bennett Moore(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCRecent outperformance i

2、n the eVTOL sector,particularly for UW-rated JOBY,has marked a period of“irrational exuberance”in our view(average+96%vs.S&P+14%in the past 3 months),fueled in part by the Trump drone Executive Order(EO)issued on June 6th(link)coupled with a broader risk-on market environment.Most investors we speak

3、 with find JOBYs recent move(up more than 200%from April lows)as overdone and decoupled from fundamentals,whereas ACHRs rally has tapered towards what we view as more reasonable levels in recent weeks.While we view the EO as a positive signal around the governments support for eVTOL,we remind invest

4、ors that any further developments are unlikely to impact company earnings materially in the near-term,other than to boost sentiment.Many,including us,expect that JOBY will take advantage of its current share price to raise additional capital,which would be prudent in our view as we project losses th

5、rough the decade.To be clear,we think JOBY and ACHR can successfully navigate certification,thus setting themselves up to be emerging leaders in Urban Air Mobility over the long-term,however,we think significant cash burn and further push-outs of revenue and therefore cash flow generation should be

6、reflected in shares today.We take this opportunity to refresh our eVTOL TAM expectations,examine how it translates to JOBY and ACHRs current valuations,and further de-risk our estimates ahead of 2Q earnings(8/6 for JOBY&8/11 for ACHR).At earnings,we would expect both companies to paint an optimistic