1、 Watchlist the stock on Insights Direct to receive prompt updates ed:BM/sa:AS,PY,CS Market deficit to intensify in 2025 Average copper prices to rise Average copper prices to rise by by 3.8%3.8%y/y y/y to to USUSD D9,500/tonne in 20259,500/tonne in 2025 onon increased market deficit increased market

2、 deficit Energy transition and Energy transition and increasing increasing i investment nvestment i in infrastructure n infrastructure and dataand data centrecentres s to to lead lead intact demand growthintact demand growth Chinas stimulus policies and Chinas stimulus policies and lower interest ra

3、telower interest rates s to be to be key catalystkey catalysts s in near termin near term Top Top p picks:icks:Zijin MiningZijin Mining and and Freeport McMoRan Freeport McMoRan Average copper price to rise by 3.8%y/y to USD9,500/tonne in 2025 on intensified market deficit.We forecast the global cop

4、per market deficit to increase to 57k tonnes in 2025 from 47k tonnes in 2024.Accordingly,we project the average copper price to rise by 3.8%y/y to USD9,500/tonne in 2025 from USD9,150/tonne in 2024.The intensifying market shortage will be triggered by i)higher demand growth of 3.8%y/y in 2025 vs.3.4

5、%y/y in 2024,and ii)limited supply growth in mined copper due to underinvestment and declining ore grades,despite Chinas refined copper capacity building.Intact demand growth from energy transition and increased investment in power infrastructure and data centre.China registered a 3.4%y/y demand gro

6、wth in 9M24,backed by strong growth in electric vehicles(EVs)and electrical products,leading to a supply shortage in the global copper market.Growth in global automobile sales is expected to accelerate to 2%y/y in 2025 from 1%y/y in 2024 following a recovery in automobile demand.We anticipate increa