1、 EQUITIES PAPER&PACKAGING NORTH AMERICAN PACKAGING Schrdingers Box 17 JULY 2025 Securities Research Report Production time:05:51*(London time)Research Analysts&Publishing EntitiesResearch Analysts&Publishing Entities Theres mixed evidence as to whether US containerboard pricing stability is alive or

2、 dead.Ahead of Fastmarkets RISIs unboxing of its monthly price release,due on Friday evening,we revisit supply,demand and cost dynamics of this key intermediate commodity that drives corrugated box profitability.We also present earnings&valuation multiple sensitivities for exposed stocks.We continue

3、 to prefer Smurfit Westrock(+)over Packaging Corp of America(=)and International Paper(-).Demand remains weak,albeit likely improved a little since April Q2 industry volumes wont be out until the end of July,likely after all major players have reported.However,we show,through correlation with high f

4、requency macro indicators,that box volumes have likely been weaker in Q2 than Q1,albeit improved modestly since Aprils sharp correction.and supply continues to look favourable Multiple announced mill closures cumulate to a c.5%reduction in North American mill capacity.Even with weak domestic volumes

5、 and lower exports,we therefore expect mill utilisation to rise in 2025,whilst its possible more closures are announced in due course.More volatile board production input costs have also been falling,including OCC,wood and energy.Fastmarkets RISI,the leading price benchmark provider,has reported no

6、change in US containerboard prices since Februarys+$40/ton hike,but other data providers dispute this.Sensitivities and valuation point to Intl.Paper as most vulnerable to US board price risks We make no forecast changes today ahead of RISIs next monthly release on Friday evening.However,we show sen