1、M IdeaEli Lilly&Co.|North AmericaCatalyst Driven Idea:Orforglipron(oral GLP-1)Ph3 in Obesity DataOrforglipron(oral GLP-1)Ph3 obesity data are expected in 3Q25,representing a key catalyst for LLY.Our base case assumes Orfo has a competitive profile with injectables.We offer our perspective on potenti

2、al LLY stock moves for 6 scenarios.What and When is the Catalyst.LLYs Orforglipron(Orfor)is an oral GLP-1 agonist,has the potential to expand the diabesity market beyond currently marketed injectable medications(e.g.,LLYs Tirzepatide and Novos Semaglutide).Following the positive Orfor Ph3 data in T2

3、D(see recap of full data HERE),top-line data from Orfor ATTAIN-1 Ph3 obesity trial are anticipated in 3Q25(we believe July/Aug),with ATTAIN-2 in Aug/Sept.ATTAIN-1 is evaluating Orfor(doses-6mg/12mg/36mg)in 3,000 people who are overweight/obese but dont have T2D,while ATTAIN-2 is evaluating the same

4、dosing regimen in 1,500 people who are overweight/obese and have T2D,both over 72 weeks.LLY plans to present full data from ATTAIN-1 at EASD conference on Sept.17,2025,and expects to submit Orfor for weight management to global regulatory agencies by year-end,with the submission for the treatment of

5、 T2D anticipated in 2026.LLY has previously discussed injectable GLP-1 monotherapy(i.e.,Sema)as the benchmark for Orfor,highlighting weight loss of 13.7%(per treatment regimen estimand)in the Sema 2.4mg arm of the SURMOUNT-5(obese non-T2D)trial at 72 weeks(see HERE).In SURMOUNT-5 treatment was disco

6、ntinued due to adverse events(AEs)by 8%of those in the Sema group.The rates of nausea(44%)and diarrhea(23%)were similar in the two arms(Sema/Zepbound),but Zepbound had a lower rate of vomiting(15%)vs.21%for Sema.For additional reference Sema(2.4mg)in STEP1(obese non-T2D)delivered weight loss of-14.9