1、EQUITY:TECHNOLOGYGreater China Semi StrategyGlobal Markets Research2 May 2025AI risk partly priced in,but macro risks risingThe new risk is macro,while AI could turn from a risk factor to a catalyst after expectations are resetGrowing tech demand uncertainties in 2H25 from US tariff policy,but AI co

2、uld turn from a risk factor to a catalyst after expectations are reset further A year ago,we concluded that this semi upcycle was all about AI(much less to do with traditional wisdom,e.g.inventory cycle,given L-shaped non-AI semi demand;Its all about AI,May 2024),and we would be buyers of our covere

3、d semi names into weakness on nVidias(NVDA US,Not rated)product transition risk from Hopper to GB structure(the same reason we were bullish during July/Aug 2024 global tech corrections).That said,we started turning more cautious on AI semi in Dec 2024(AI semi Anchor)given our view that Street expect

4、ations on AI semi had run too high(with hype likely driven by CoWoS capacity numbers),risk-reward had worsened following the significant two-year share price outperformance,and there could be an AI demand reality check after two years of heavy capex from hyperscalers(Fig.2).Since then,we have seen q

5、uite a few new dynamics affecting AI semi share prices meaningfully.Some of these echo our concerns,but some are worse than we had expected.1)GB200 rack delivery in 1H25 has been progressing much slower than even our tech teams already cautious view(report,report),which has leads to some customers i

6、nterests having shifted to GB300(ramping from 4Q25,if smooth),leading to slower order demand in 1H25;2)Deepseek announcements in Feb 2025 increased global investors worries on whether such significant AI capex was needed;3)2025 CoWoS order cuts(by both ASIC customers and nVidia)in March 2025 could b