1、M IdeaAustralia Materials|Asia PacificDataDig:Lithium supply response with strong demandMorgan Stanley Australia Limited+Rahul Anand,CFAEquity Analyst R.A +61 2 9770-1136 Michael A StancliffResearch Associate Michael.S +61 2 9770-9253 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Tim HsiaoEquity Analyst Tim.H +852 28

2、48-1982 Rachel L ZhangEquity Analyst Rachel.Z +852 2239-1520 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Amy Gower(Amy Sergeant),CFACommodities Strategist Amy.G +44 20 7677-6937 Australia MaterialsAsia PacificIndustry ViewAttractiveRecent Research:South32 Ltd:4QFY25:Strong momentum(ex-alumina).Manganese bea

3、ts MSe by 12%and cons by 25%.(21 Jul 2025)BHP Group Ltd:4QFY25:Prodn beat across all businesses.FY26 guide in-line with cons,Jansen capex a negative(18 Jul 2025)Rio Tinto Limited:2QCY25 Prodn:Good operating performance(+2%expected 1H EBITDA impact),but tariff impacts and IO realizations remain forwa

4、rd looking questions.(16 Jul 2025)Australia Materials:Quarterly Preview:June25 Qtr(14 Jul 2025)Australia Materials:Strategy 3Q:Tariff on,Tariff off(14 Jul 2025)Charts,analysis and comparables for the global mining sector.Lithium prices have rallied strongly from June lows(spod+23%;carbonate+12%),wit

5、h the market showing signs of supply response amid regulatory tightening,plus strong demand (Chinas pure EV sales tracking at +47%YTD YoY).In Jiangxi,eight mines(150ktpa LCE production)were asked to submit reserve verification reports by September 30,citing flaws in their mining license approvals,wi

6、th operations expected to continue during verification.Separately,Zangge Mining(000408.SZ,not covered)recently halted production at its Qarhan brine project(11kt LCE target for CY25)after regulators found its mining license covered only potash.Another major Jiangxi producer recently suspended spot m