1、M IdeaEstimates tweaked lower.H1 EBITDA missed our estimate by 4%on weaker margins product pricing softened in GB as the volume recovery is pushed out(house building still stagnant),and large infra projects in Ireland are paused post political change.Cost absorption was also lower than expected in t

2、he US on weather impacted volumes.We lower FY25/26 EBITDA-2%,driving our PT lower.While we appreciate earnings momentum is negative,we think the pull back in shares is overdone.Granted,some of the impacts in the half weather in the US,M&A impact to working capital might have been more swiftly commun

3、icated,but this does not detract from the long-term demand fundamentals,which are intact.Housing at a cycle low.Infrastructure support in place.Cyclically,we think volumes in the core GB market are at trough the RICS survey signals a stabilisation in private housing workloads,and housing starts have

4、 modestly picked up from levels last seen in the GFC.On Infrastructure,725bn has been committed by the government in June 2025 to its 10-year Infrastructure Strategy,covering both economic(transport,energy,water)and social(schools,hospitals)areas,with funding continuing to grow at least in line with

5、 inflation.The government increased the capital envelope by over 100 billion at Autumn Budget 2024(107 billion from 202526 to 202930)and by a further 13 billion over the same period at Spring Statement 2025.Taken together,the government is investing an additional 120 billion over the period,compared

6、 with the plans set out at Spring Budget 2024.With readymix concrete volumes at 60-year lows according to the MPA,and aggregates volumes only 10%above GFC peaks,we think the opportunity from a sustained volume recovery is clear.We unpack some indicators of the UK construction market in this note.UK