1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Continental Europe View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey|Clicktovi

2、ewConfidenceCrunch Q2 25 results strong consensus beat:revenue came in 6%higher,up 22%y-o-y;EPS 21%beat and up 38%y-o-y AI tools and network effect combined can support double-digit revenue growth:we forecast 16%CAGR in 2025-27 Upgrade to Buy;new TP of USD900(from USD610)on higher 2026 EPS forecasts

3、 and target PE multiple Q2 25 results strong:Meta revenues grew+21.6%y-o-y,driven by+21.5%in Advertising and beating Visible Alpha expectations by 6%.Operating income came in 19%above consensus,while EPS was up 38%y-o-y(21%beat).Guidance for Q3 25 indicates sales growing by 17-24%,before slowing dow

4、n in Q4.The main surprise was Meta announcing a cUSD30bn capex increase in 2026 vs a guided range of USD66-72bn in 2025.Also,Meta guides for higher expense growth in 2026 vs 2025(2025e:+22%at mid-range;pre results consensus was looking at+14%for 2026e).Bigger share of a larger pie:We see Meta in a s

5、trong position to outpace digital ad market growth.Global market growth(10.3%2025-27 CAGR)is driven by a combination of growing GDP,further migration from traditional ad(c77%in 25e),and an increasing ad spend share of GDP outside the US.Meta already captures 31.6%of the global digital ad market in 2

6、5e(after adjusting for countries in which it doesnt operate)and can get more incremental revenue than its fair share,we think.AI capabilities improve targeting and quality of content.Time spent on the different platforms keeps increasing(+5%on Facebook and+6%on Instagram in Q2 after+7%and+6%in Q1).I