1、CrispIdea|R E S E A R C HMondelez InternationalE Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H Retail|Packaged Foods|Jun 11,2025Mondelez InternationalChocolate win hearts but profits feel the heatWe maintain our“HOLD”rating for Mondelez and downgrade the target price to$72 from$74 for FY26 which provides an upside pote

2、ntial of 8%.We derive our target price based on an EV/EBITDA of 14.6x along with a forward earnings multiple of 21.55x and an adj.EPS of$3.34 for FY26.Moreover,we expect an EV/EBITDA of 15.7x along with a forward earnings multiple of 22.81x and an adj.EPS of$3.03 for FY25.Our estimates are based on

3、1)Chocolate strategy;2)Cocoa price spike challenges 3)Growth strategy and 4)Challenges in key marketsIndustry Analysis:In 2024,the global packaged food market was valued at approximately$3.12tn and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.1%from 2025 to 2034.The packaged food market is growing due to tre

4、nds like eco-friendly packaging,online shopping,and personalized products.More people want healthy food,convenient options,and plant-based proteins.Growth is also driven by a rising global population and digital advancements.Chocolate Strategy:MDLZs chocolate strategy is performing as expected,even

5、with the sharp rise in cocoa prices.It has prepared early for this challenge and made smart changes to their product lineup.By offering different pack sizes,from small treats to large family packs,it is meeting various consumer needs while keeping affordable options available.Most of its planned pri

6、ce increases in Europe have gone smoothly,with little customer pushback.As a result,consumer demand has stayed steady,and it has gained 0.4%market share in chocolate so far this year.The company continues to innovate with new flavors and seasonal products,such as chocolates with Biscoff flavor,which