杰富瑞Jefferies:美国零售REITs年度展望:关税未影响开店计划;低坏账率提振业绩指引-250722(英文版)(21页).pdf

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杰富瑞Jefferies:美国零售REITs年度展望:关税未影响开店计划;低坏账率提振业绩指引-250722(英文版)(21页).pdf

1、USA|REITsEquity ResearchJuly 22,2025 LindaTsai*|Equity Analyst1(212)778-8011|JonathanPetersen*|Equity Analyst(212)284-1705|KatieElders*|Equity Associate+1(917)421-1968|AhmedMehri*|Equity Associate+1(212)778-8456|All Things Retail REITs-2Q25 Themes&ChartRefreshOn 2Q25 calls,managements likely highlig

2、ht continued leasing demandwith tariffs not meaningfully shifting national retailers store opening plans.Continued gains in SNO pipelines should assuage potential concern overongoing occupancy recovery in 2Q(discussed in 1Q by BRX,KIM,KRG)whilelower bad debt should boost guidance,positioning stocks

3、for better near-termperformance.IVT appears most undervalued relative to its valuation&26EFFO/ps growth.This report now includes discussion of Open-Air Shopping Centers,Enclosed Malls&Retail Net Lease.Strips&Malls Down YTD,2Q25 Results Should Help:Shopping Centers(-9.2%)&Malls(-6.5%)have underperfor

4、med on concerns over tariffs hurting consumer demand&retailer margins.Atthe same time,more square footage from big box store closures have turned net retail absorptionnegative(JLL,CoStar)for two quarters.Over the past 18 months,drugstores&craft/hobby apparelhave announced the greatest number of stor

5、e closures while restaurants&discounters haveannounced the greatest number of openings,as evidenced in demand for larger-sized spaces(30Kto 50K SF spaces)from the likes of Ross,Burlington,and Aldis,given no new development.We believe the outlook is constructive for Class A malls as these centers ben

6、efit from a lack ofnew supply and retailers flight to quality.At ICSC,MAC and SPG reported notable Y/Y increases inleasing meetings.Retailers are prioritizing high-traffic corridors to drive omnichannel.The wealtheffect and experiential retail are supporting performance.Net Lease REITs Outperform YT

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