1、North America Equity Research25 July 2025J P M O R G A NOil&Gas Exploration&ProductionArun Jayaram AC(1-212)622-Zach Parham(1-212)622-Pankaj Bhatter,CFA(1-212)622-Jack Jerusalmi(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCJPM View:In this weeks Reservoir,we take a look at recent natural gas supply and demand

2、 trends as we move into the second half of the year.L48 gas production has averaged 104.8 Bcf/d YTD,which is up 3.2 Bcf/d vs.2024 levels of 101.6 Bcf/d through this time last year driven by growth from the Permian(+2.4 Bcf/d)and Appalachia(+1.2 Bcf/d),somewhat offset by lower Louisiana volumes(-149

3、MMcf/d).On a quarterly basis,L48 natural gas production averaged a record 105.3 Bcf/d over 2Q25,which was up+1.4 Bcf/d QoQ,+5.2 Bcf/d YoY,and in line with our model that called for 105.3 Bcf/d of 2Q25 output.At a basin level,the YoY volume increase over 2Q was primarily driven by growth from the Per

4、mian(+2.5 Bcf/d)and Appalachia(+2.2 Bcf/d),while QoQ gains came from Appalachia(+653 MMcf/d)and Louisiana(+455 MMcf/d).On a MTD basis,L48 natural gas production has averaged 106.3 Bcf/d over July(+0.7%MoM),including a new all-time-high print of 107.4 Bcf/d on July 21.The growth in L48 production MoM

5、 has been largely driven by the Permian(+611 MMcf/d)and Louisiana(+570 MMcf/d),which have offset declines from Appalachia(-640 MMcf/d).Notably,Appalachia production has averaged 35.5 Bcf/d over July MTD,which is down from the all-time daily highs of 36.8 Bcf/d at the end of May.On the other hand,Lou

6、isiana gas production has averaged 11.5 Bcf/d over July,with 11.8 Bcf/d recorded three days of the past seven days,marking the highest prints of the year.In terms of activity,the total U.S.gas rig count currently stands at 117 rigs,which is up 12%(+12 rigs)vs.the 2024 average of 105 rigs.Among the g