1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:28/07/2025 04:03:13 GMTDistributed on:28/07/2025 04:03:13 GMT28 July 2025Chart of the week:Tratons truck market outlookAhead of Knorr-Bremses(KB)Q2 results on Thursday,the backdrop for the truck market has become even less supportive.Last week,Traton cu

2、t its outlook for medium and heavy truck sales volumes in the North American market to-17.5%to-7.5%,down from-10%to 0%previously.Europe is still seen declining by-15%to-5%in 2025,with a partial recovery seen in the back half,in part supported by potential positive momentum from German infrastructure

3、 investments in Q4.Tratons market outlook compares with KBs expectation for truck production in North America to be down significantly YoY,whereas Europe is expected to be stable.The weakness in the truck market after a surge in demand in the post-Covid period is well documented.However,the US marke

4、t was expected to be helped by some pre-buying ahead of emissions regulations set to take effect in 2027,which are now being reconsidered by the EPA.As such,Traton no longer expects to benefit from any pre-buying in 2025,although we note KBs guidance for 2025 does not incorporate such a tailwind.Tra

5、ton sees a high level of customer hesitancy in the US,due to uncertainties related to regulation and tariffs.Inventories also remain at elevated levels,and are likely to take until year-end to clear out.More positively,tax cuts in the US,among other pro business policies,could help truck customers a

6、nd support the market towards the end of the year.We expect KB to cut its FY revenue guidance due to FX and the ongoing weakness in the US truck market.Figure 1:Traton sees lower demand for trucks in North AmericaSource:TratonGael de-Bray,CFAResearch Analyst+33-1-4495-6562John KimResearch Analyst+44