1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Uncertainty around prospective US tariffs looms large whi

2、le business managements are concerned about heightening tensions and a possible economic downturn and export growth could come in under 2%this year We are less than one month into the new year and there has already been a number of trade developments to ring in 2025.In its last weeks,the Biden admin

3、istration announced various trade restrictions and investigations,ranging from new sanctions on Russian crude oil(which has seen Brent prices surge past USD80/b recently)to launching a Section 301 investigation into legacy chips from China and proposing a new rule to limit exports of advanced chips

4、to develop AI(both of which will be left to the Trump administration to implement)(see chart 30 and table 11).Meanwhile,businesses and governments are bracing for what the new Trump administration might do on trade and tariffs.Since winning the election,President-elect Trump has threatened new tarif

5、fs on Mexico,Canada,and China to tackle illegal immigration and drugs flows,on the EU unless it buys more American oil and gas,and on Denmark as part of his push to bring Greenland under US control(table 12).President-elect Trump also doubled down on his plan to boost tariff revenue,stating in a Tru

6、th Social Post that“tariffs will pay off our debt”(1 January 2025).This links to his earlier idea to replace the federal income tax with revenue from high tariffs and,more recently,to create an external revenue service to collect tariff income.It is worth noting that tariffs currently comprise just