1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Vessel attacks in the Red Sea have largely stopped but Su

2、ez Canal transits will take some time to resume while chips,pharma,autos,textiles and apparel,and critical minerals could be within scope of future US trade actions Companies are increasingly discussing tariffs,while US-China trade tensions could weigh on some operations in China From a flurry of US

3、 tariff announcements,to the possibility of a full return of vessels to the Suez Canal,and the potential implications of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal for commodity exports the outlook for global trade,much like a rollercoaster,has seen many twists and turns already this year.Although there have not b

4、een any attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by the Houthis so far this year(note,the group claimed on 19 January it will only target Israeli vessels),most ships continue to avoid the Suez Canal.Indeed,our shipping team expects transits on any scale to resume only from mid-2025,assuming the Israeli-Ham

5、as ceasefire deal holds,while Maersks CEO Vincent Clerc recently said that“you get one shot at going through the Suez”implying that ships would only return once safe passage is guaranteed,to avoid flip-flopping back and forth(Sourcing Journal,6 February 2025).Meanwhile,shipping costs continue to tre

6、nd down as we emerge from the typically quiet Lunar New Year period.However,shipping rates remain elevated with global container spot rates 2.5x compared with early-December 2023.While we await the outcome of the USs many trade reviews(including the possibility of implementing reciprocal tariffs)and