1、?US Housing Insights:Immigration and Tariff Policy Yet another headwind for housing affordability,but fallout wont be as bad as the market fears.Executive Summary President Trumps campaign promises to take a tough stance on immigration and use tariffs as a tool to balance global trade and compel Can

2、ada and Mexico to strengthen border security have become reality.Illegal border crossings have diminished,and immigration enforcement actions are rising.There are now 20%tariffs on imports from China and 25%tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico that are not compliant with the United State

3、s-Mexico-Canada Agreement.Tariffs targeting other countries may be on the horizon too.Housing-related stocks have underperformed the broader market since President Trumps election,which tells us the market is fearful that the administrations immigration policy will exacerbate the construction labor

4、shortage and tariffs will reignite inflationunwelcome developments for a housing market thats already plagued by poor affordability.While we agree that these policies will result in some headwinds for homebuilders,home improvement retailers,and building product manufacturers,we believe the market is

5、 pricing in an overly bearish outlook for housing-related stocks.Key Takeaways Owing to legislative obstacles,legal challenges,and obstruction from state and local governments,we think mass deportations are unlikely,and we expect moderate immigration tightening during the Trump administration.Import

6、ed goods account for less than 10%of the total value of all goods used to construct a new home.We estimate tariffs on imports from China,Canada,and Mexico will increase construction costs by a low-single-digit percentage.Despite industry rhetoric,we think the value chain will absorb some of these ad