1、M FoundationSouth Korea|Asia PacificInvestor Presentation:Super-aging,Structurally changing Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedKathleen OhChief Korea/Taiwan Economist Kathleen.O +852 2848-7340 For important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.October 11,2024 04:34 P

2、M GMTM Foundation2Todays World EconomyM FoundationMorgan Stanley Research3Our Latest Views Around the WorldUS:After the Fed cut 50bp in September,we retain our call for 25bp Fed cuts in November and December.Despite the faster-than-expected first cut,the tone of the meeting,subsequent communications

3、 and recent economic data in the US lead us to expect two 25bp cuts into year-end.Risks around the call will focus on payroll data,where sub-100k prints raise the likelihood of 50bp cuts.We continue to expect a broad deceleration into year-end,but without recession.Japan:We retain our call for the B

4、oJ to raise rates in January,but the upcoming election is important.After being selected as Prime Minister,Ishiba called for a general election in late October.The election could have implications for Japans fiscal outlook,which might influence our call for a January hike.Europe:We expect the next E

5、CB rate cut in October.Recent growth and inflation data in the Euro area led us to lower forecasts for both growth and inflation.We do not expect much of a positive impulse from Chinas stimulus in the near term.We expect cuts in consecutive meetings until March.China:The biggest news in Asia has bee

6、n Chinas stimulus announcements this month.After further weakness in growth and inflation data,the Chinese government made a series of announcements to support the economy.While we think more needs to be done,as a first step,the rate cuts and housing support should be indicative of more policy expec