1、M IdeaEli Lilly&Co.|North AmericaFull Orfor(oral GLP-1)diabetes data at ADA conference confirm top-line profile Investigators at ADA presented the 1st Orfor Ph3 data in T2D and in our view the data were in line with expectations and there were no surprises.We see this as an incremental positive for

2、shares,and continue to view the upcoming Orfor Ph3 obesity data later this summer as a more important catalyst.Investigators at the ADA conference presented full Ph3 ACHIEVE-1 data for LLYs orforglipron(oral GLP-1)in type 2 diabetes(T2D),which were also published in the NEJM and we offer our key tak

3、eaways below:Efficacy estimand at week 40:HbA1c(1.3-1.6%reductions from baseline vs.-0.1%for pbo;Exhibit 1)and weight loss(4.7-7.9%from baseline vs.-1.6%for pbo;Exhibit 2)was in line what was disclosed in the top-line press release(see HERE and our prior preview HERE).In addition,43-61%of participan

4、ts treated with Orfor had at least 5%weight loss and 33%had at least 10%weight reduction at the highest dose.For context,in the PIONEER 1 trial of Novos oral sema(dose of 3 mg,7 mg,or 14 mg),21-44%of participants had weight loss of at least 5%,and in the SUSTAIN 1 trial,37-45%of participants had at

5、least 5%weight loss with Novos injectable sema(dose of 0.5mg or 1mg),with the caveats of cross trial comparisons.With respect to the weight loss,the curves continued to decline.Safety/tolerability:The ADA presenter noted that the GI tolerability of Orfor was not that much different from what you see

6、 with other GLP-1s,and he noted that perhaps it was even a little bit less frequent(other than diarrhea).He also characterized GI AEs leading to Orfor discontinuation(the most objective measure)as very low at 2.2-5.7%.Overall treatment discontinuation rates due to AEs were 6%(3 mg),4%(12 mg)and 8%(3