1、ab5 June 2025Global ResearchPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESIndia Market StrategyGLP-1 launcha key event for multiple sectorsGLP-1 has implications for pharma,FMCG,food delivery,insurance,hospitalsThe Semaglutide(GLP-1)generic market is expected to open up in India in March 2026.We estimate it could in

2、crease India pharmaceutical market revenue growth from 8%to 10%,and expand the diabetes and obesity market by 50%by FY29.In our coverage,we expect Sun Pharma to benefit the most.Beyond pharma,GLP-1 penetration is likely to be positive for life&health insurers(lower mortality and lower critical disea

3、se incidence),travel,fitness/retail firms.Implications are seen as negative for food companies(Jubilant,Nestle,Varun,Britannia),food delivery(Eternal,Swiggy),diagnostics,hospitals.GLP-1 India patient pool could be 10-15m and a US$1.4bn market by FY29EIn the US,10m patients are on GLP-1 drugs.Penetra

4、tion in India could be similar(10m base case)or higher(15m bull case)as prices in India could potentially be 90-95%lower than in the US and India is an out-of-pocket market unlike restricted insurance coverage in the US.Based on our channel checks,Indian doctors view GLP-1 favourably as benefits ext

5、end beyond diabetes and weight reduction to lower incidence of cardiac,kidney and multiple other diseases.We model 15-20%penetration in diabetes patients,4%in obese patients and expect the GLP-1 market to reach c.US$1.4bn by FY29E.Pharma stocks market cap upside sensitivity to GLP-1 could be 7-14%In

6、 pharma,market-cap sensitivity to 1%higher revenue growth is 7%for a pure domestic company.With GLP-1,India revenue growth could be 200bp higher and,as our coverage firms generate half of their profits from India,the GLP-1 benefit could represent c.7%upside potential to market cap.Sun Pharma looks w