美银:医药供应链行业研究:5 月 GLP-1 处方增速放缓 品牌药转用进程加速 - 250606(英文版)(14页).pdf

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美银:医药供应链行业研究:5 月 GLP-1 处方增速放缓 品牌药转用进程加速 - 250606(英文版)(14页).pdf

1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12839173 Rx Supply Chain May GLP-1 TRx decelerates from 1Q;push to transition patients to branded Industry Overview GLP-1 TRx+39%in May,decelerating from April and 1Q Weekly GLP-1 total script(TRx)growth through May 23rd decelera

3、ted from April and is below the average growth in 1Q25 largely driven by slower Rx growth for Ozempic and Wegovy.BofAs EU pharma team assumes an inflection in Ozempic/Wegovy TRx will happen in 2H25 against tougher 2H24 comps(see NVO 1Q earnings note here).Weekly GLP-1 TRx growth is averaging+39%y/y

4、in May(through 5/23)vs.+44%y/y in April and+45%average growth in 1Q25(Exhibit 1).While growth in May decelerated from the prior month,growth continues to trend well above the trough levels of mid-teens growth observed in the Spring of 2024.Weekly total new script(NRx)growth for GLP-1s grew 26%y/y(we

5、ek ending 5/23)compared to 28%in the prior week and 25%in the two weeks prior(Exhibit 2).In April,GLP-1 monthly sales grew 36%y/y compared to 48%y/y in Mar.and 41%y/y in Feb.(Exhibit 3).More initiatives to transition patients from compounded On May 22nd,in conjunction with the end of the FDA grace p

6、eriod for mass compounding of semaglutide,Novo Nordisk(NVO,covered by Sachin Jain)announced a series of initiatives to support patient access to branded Wegovy.Novo Nordisk is offering a one-time introductory offer for self-pay patients new to Wegovy for$199 for the first month through the end of Ju

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