1、Asia Pacific Equity Research27 June 2025J P M O R G A NPharmaceuticals&Healthcare ServicesBansi Desai,CFA AC(91 22)6157 Gopal Bhatt(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private Limited,J.P.Morgan Tower,Santacruz(E),Mumbai-400098,SEBI Registration:INH000001873,(91-22)6157-3000.We present key insights from our

2、 expert series and introduce our GLP-1 India Market Model to assess the domestic market opportunity as Semaglutide,the leading GLP-1 drug,goes off patent in Mar 2026.Based on our forecasts,the GLP-1 market could potentially scale to$1.5bn by 2030(4%of market)offering an outsized share to early entra

3、nts with established diabetes/cardiometabolic portfolio in India.Our key takeaways are:1)Per JPMe,the Global GLP-1 drug market is forecast to grow from$54bn in 2024 to$160bn/$186bn by 2030/36 as penetration levels improve from 2%currently to 9%/18%in 2030/36;2)India opportunity:Large TAM(190mn+diabe

4、tics and obese),affordability will be a key factor influencing penetration levels;3)Per Eris Lifesciences,the annualised run rate for GLP-1 sales in India could touch Rs25-40bn at the end of year 1 of generic launches;4)Impact on existing drugs:Sulfonylurea and DPP-4 inhibitor(gliptins)drugs(8%/25%o

5、f diabetes market ex/incl combinations)are likely to be most impacted;Insulin is likely to remain important due to its convenience and affordability,although volumes/doses may decline,per doctors;5)Novo Nordisk,the innovator,is likely to fight generics in all key markets given it enjoys high gross m

6、argins and doesnt face capacity constraints;6)CDMO opportunity(API/intermediates/fill-finish)could be material for a select few names.Indian players with GLP-1 exposure:We identify four to five buckets of opportunity to capitalize on the GLP-1 narrative,namely:1)Innovation-Sun Pharma(early stage);2)