1、ECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR AUSTRALIAS INSURANCE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT A project for the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority on behalf of the Council of Financial RegulatorsMarch 20252March 2025DisclaimerAll data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics Australias own data,except

2、 where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes,and are copyright Oxford Economics Australia.The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics Australia has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Any subsequent

3、revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report please contact:Kristian Kolding:Oxford Economics AustraliaLevel 6,95 Pitt Street,Sydney,2000,NSWDelayed transitionscenario assumes global annual emissions continueto increase until 2030 when stro

4、ng emissions mitigation policies to limit warmingto below 2C by 2050 are implemented.Executive summary3Two NGFS aligned macroeconomic scenarios were modelled as part of the Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment and compared to a counterfactual scenario where theres no further increase in temper

5、atures or transition policy action.1 Current Policies scenario assumes that emissions continue to rise due to the lack of mitigating policies beyond what is currently implemented.Global warming reaches 2.5 C by 2050 with an increasing frequency of extreme weather events representing a tail-risk view

6、 of the NGFS CPS scenario2 1.Consistent with the Network for Greening the Financial System(NGFS),the counterfactual scenario provides a baseline of no additional physical or transition climate risks,and no further climate adaptation,to 2050.This provides a baseline against which climate impacts of t