1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:17/07/2025 22:43:04 GMTDistributed on:17/07/2025 22:43:04 GMT17 July 2025Deutsche BankResearch Rating Buy North America United States TMT Software Company Microsoft Date Forecast Change F4Q Preview-Expecting to see AI SwaggerMicrosoft shares have signif

2、icantly outperformed since the company reported much better-than-expected F3Q Azure results in April and seem well supported heading into what we anticipate will be strong F4Q results on July 30th.Wed highlight a not overly demanding Azure setup,more resilient PC shipments,rebounding sentiment and a

3、ctivity post April tariff uncertainty as catalysts for revenue outperformance.Leverage to topline upside along with guidance for well above seasonal OpEx growth despite constrained headcount growth and AI savings also bode well for y/y operating margin expansion and EPS upside.Shifting to FY26,we th

4、ink solid results and adjustment for spot FX rates push Street numbers higher.While the company doesnt provide a quantitative full year target,we expect mgmt.to directionally guide to another year of double-digit y/y revenue and operating income growth,as it has in recent years.We dig into more deta

5、il herein but at a high level believe FY26 consensus for+13%y/y revenue growth still underappreciates the resiliency of Azure demand,the signal being sent around mix shifting back toward shorter-lived assets within still growing overall CapEx,and rebounding non-AI Azure activity that started to show

6、 last quarter and seem to be strengthening in our recent checks.Mgmt.s stated commitment to managing the business at an operating margin level also remains top of mind,and we think will show in expectations for at least stable y/y OM in FY26 despite more gross margin pressure from scaling AI investm