1、2025 Midyear Market OutlookInvesting in a postglobalization world1OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES,THIS IS INTENDED FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY.NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.IntroductionScorecardEconomic OutlookEquity OutlookFixed Income OutlookAsset AllocationIntroductionPage 1ScorecardPage 2Ec

2、onomic Outlook Page 3Equity OutlookPage 5Fixed Income OutlookPage 7Asset AllocationPage 9Investing in a postglobalization worldEric Veiel,CFAHead of Global Investments andChiefInvestment OfficerThe year 2025 was always going to be one of change,but the speed and extent of developments have taken alm

3、ost everybody by surprise.The full impact of trade policy shifts have yet to unfold,but it is clear that the global trading system is being reconfigured before our eyes,with profound implications for financial markets.We are undergoing a process of deglobalization.This will negatively impact the glo

4、bal economy,with the key protagonists,the U.S.and China,hit hardest.It is also a key factor in our outlook for equity,fixed income,and asset allocation investing through the rest of 2025.The threat of tariffs has brought forward changes in equity markets that had already begun to occur prior to Nove

5、mbers U.S.presidential election.The spread of earnings growth between the“Magnificent Seven”group of megacap tech stocks and the rest of the U.S.stock market will likely continue to diminish,fueling a period of less concentrated markets and more varied market leadership.We expect this broadening of

6、the opportunity set to include nonU.S.stocks as well.In bond markets,massive German fiscal expansion,in combination with the U.S.tariff policies,has triggered a global regime change.Highertrend inflationmost notably in the U.S.and a heightened risk of a sharp growth slowdown are pushing developed ma