1、Equity ResearchEarnings Preview July 7,2025LogisticsParcelRailTruckingFrom Breaking Bad to Breaking Right?2Q25 Transports PreviewOur CallEstimate changes are becoming more neutral for 2Q and 2H25.This may indicate that consensus is finally getting right-sized for the current freight environment.Foll

2、owing lots of headwinds in 1H,there are some catalysts that could break right in 2H.Early Cycle Finding a Bottom on Estimates?After many quarters of deep estimate cuts,we are making small changes to our TL coverage,which skew positive on average for 2Q(+3%)and 2H25(+4%).Our estimates in 2H are only

3、4%below consensus(ex WERN),which is down considerably from 22%in 1Q25 and 21%in 4Q24.With this groups stocks back to the 2024 bottoms,we believe risk/reward is favorable.Wed like to see supply/demand catalysts break favorably in 2H to become more constructive.2H Outlook Could Break More Positively-P

4、essimism in freight remains the consensus view,but we wonder if that is right.The passage of a large tax/spending bill could provide a demand catalyst and some certainty for shippers.Rate cuts are being priced in,which is the other key point shippers are looking for.Add incremental trade deals,and w

5、e could be well past the worst from an uncertainty perspective.Lingering tariffs/inflation are offsets,along with the impacts of pull forward.This Perspective Keeps Us Constructive on Rail,Modest Positive Bias Outside Rail-Along with TL,our rail numbers are moving up on average for 25 and 26.Rail vo

6、lume outperformed our expectations in 2Q by 160 bps on average,and we think the outlook for mix improvements in 2H25 and 2026 positively offsets headwinds from tough international intermodal comps.Outside of rail,we think selective exposure to TL/early cycle makes sense,while we see material estimat