1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report The 20thediti

2、onof the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewHesitant bulls of summer No bazooka stimulus,but we see catalysts from a stronger RMB,abundant liquidity,better earnings,and policy support Recovery of mutual fund issuance;southbound funds return;outflows from foreign funds;Moutai wholesale prices fell US in

3、flation below consensus;Federal Funds Futures(FFF)imply three 25bp rate cuts in 2025;EM equities to benefit No silver bullet,but a silver lining.As discussed in our 2H25 outlook(China Equity Strategy-2H25 outlook:No silver bullets,but a silver lining,26 June 2025),overall economic growth may continu

4、e to face pressure and policy support could be structural rather than a bazooka stimulus.However,we see a silver lining from:(1)potential RMB appreciation(CSI 300 gained an average of 17.8%over the past five RMB appreciation cycles);(2)abundant liquidity(downside protection from the National Team,re

5、covery of mutual fund issuance,insurance funds increase equity positions,and the return of foreign funds);(3)earnings improvement;and(4)policy support(the Politburo meetings in July and December,and the Fourth Plenum in November or December to announce proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan).Data hig

6、hlights.(1)New mutual fund issuance continues to recover y-t-d,up 104%y-o-y;c79%is from index funds and issuance of active funds also picked up from June;(2)southbound Stock Connect funds made a comeback after a pause,with y-t-d net inflows reaching HKD708.1bn;(3)foreign funds moved out of mainland