1、M IdeaSoutheast Asias e-commerce(EC)market headwind turns to a tailwind:In 2024,Shopee had brought more volume in-house,adding pressure to J&Ts growth in the region.In 2025,its appears that TikTok Shop,who has adopted third party logistics(3PL),is aggressively gaining market share,underpinning J&Ts

2、strong beat in 2Q25s operational results.We expect J&T to deliver US$235mn adjusted NP in 1H25,vs.US$63m in 1H24.More optimistic on growth outlook for Southeast Asia,but questions remain:1)Will SE Asias EC market continue to grow robustly amid trade frictions?2)How will SE Asias EC market evolve wil

3、l EC+1PL(Shopee),or EC+3PL model(TikTok Shop)dominate the market?3)Will TikTok Shops bargaining power change,considering it already contributes over 50%of J&Ts SE Asia volumes?Earnings forecasts and PT hikes.We raise adjusted NP by 12%,24%and 34%for 2025,2026 and 2027,respectively.We factor in its 2

4、Q25 SE Asia beat and adjust up respective growth for 2026-2027e accordingly,and adjust down the profit recovery outlook in China given the escalated competition and its 2Q25 miss.Our price target increases by 34%to HK$9.5,after rolling forward the valuation date to mid-2026,and adjusting our bull/ba

5、se/bear probability weightings.We hesitate turning more bullish on valuation.The share price has reacted positively(+17%after OP updates on Jul 8 vs.+0.5%of HSI,following 14%outperformance in the previous week),echoing the discussion in our Catalyst Driven Idea.Consensus sell-side numbers look conse

6、rvative but we think the market has priced in earnings upside.J&T is trading at 2.4%2025e FCF yield,and its China business may not be able to turn FCF positive in the near future.We stay EW.Upside risks:1)Further acceleration in SE Asia and new markets growth;2)better-than-expected earnings in China