1、M UpdateBiopharma|North AmericaA picture is worth a thousand words Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCTerence C Flynn,Ph.D.Equity Analyst Terence.F +1 212 761-2230 Alexander Yevdokimov,Ph.D.Research Associate Alexander.Y +1 212 761-2167 Chris Yu,J.D.,Ph.D.Equity Analyst Chris.L.Y +1 212 761-2535 Hailey HorowitzRe

2、search Associate Hailey.H +1 212 761-5264 Mia D BongiornoResearch Associate Mia.B +1 212 761-2857 Major PharmaceuticalsNorth AmericaIndustry ViewIn-LineBiotechnologyNorth AmericaIndustry ViewAttractiveComprehensive US drug market analysis(IQVIA Rx).The latest weekly Total Prescription YoY growth(wk

3、ending 7/4-Independence Day holiday week)was+3.4%vs.+2.0%last wk and+2.3%over the past 12 wks.For week ended Jul 04,US total market weekly TRx YoY change was+3.4%vs.+2.2%year ago(Exhibit6).Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was+2.7%and rolling 12-week TRx YoY was+2.3%.Extended unit(EUTRx)weekly YoY growth was+2

4、.2%,below TRx YoY(Exhibit 10).Sequential weekly TRx growth was-7.3%compared to-1.3%week before.Exhibit15 Exhibit17 depict YoY momentum for key products.YOY are skewed due to holiday week.BMYs Cobenfy was approved for schizophrenia on 9/26/24.Scripts are 1,820 for the week vs 1,920 last week.For full

5、 details on our views on the launch see our note Contextualizing Cobenfy launch expectations,where we discuss that the analogs we are most focused on are the schizophrenia volumes from the Rexulti,Caplyta,and Lybalvi launches.We estimated that to achieve 2025 consensus expectations Cobenfy TRx needs

6、 to track at 2-3x the volumes from those launches(see Exhibit 1)based on the implied consensus trend as 25 estimates have declined to$175mn from$196mn since our initial note,which implies 150K TRx are required to reach consensus estimates(assuming a$1,200 net price,in line with our estimated price i