摩根士丹利:Eli Lilly(礼来)Mounjaro与Zepbound处方量追踪:2025年组合销售额仍有12%上行空间-250711(英文版)(29页).pdf

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摩根士丹利:Eli Lilly(礼来)Mounjaro与Zepbound处方量追踪:2025年组合销售额仍有12%上行空间-250711(英文版)(29页).pdf

1、M UpdateEli Lilly&Co.|North AmericaMounjaro+Zepbound Script TrackerMounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 7/4/2025 were 595,800/325,200(vs.588,900/302,300 last week)per IQVIA data.Zepbound TRx/NRx scripts were 376,300/250,200(vs.451,400/303,200 last week).We see 12%upside to 2025 M+Z ests.We are m

2、onitoring the launch of LLYs Mounjaro(tirzepatide)for type 2 diabetes(T2D),and Zepbound(tirzepatide)for obesity given these are the companys key product cycles.Total GLP-1 TRx(LLY+Novo)grew 42%yoy(see Exhibit 9 within).We are focused on Mounjaro+Zepbound impact on overall growth of the GLP-1 categor

3、y(see Exhibit 6 within)and share dynamics(Exhibit 11).Total LLY GLP-1 franchise(Mounjaro+Trulicity+Zepbound)weekly NRx market share was 61%(vs.61%last week)-see Exhibit 18 within.Mounjaro+Trulicity+Zepbound TRx for the current*JULY 4 HOLIDAY WEEK*week are 1,118,000 vs.1,197,100 the week prior(-6.6%w

4、/w).Mounjaro+Zepbound TRx for the current*JULY 4 HOLIDAY WEEK*week are 972,100 vs.1,040,300 the week prior(-6.6%w/w).Zepbound vials:there were 68,800 vial scripts(vs.104,300 week prior).CVS/Wegovy agreement(LINK)appears to be beginning to have an impact on Zepbound share:Recall CVS took a formulary

5、action on July 1 to prefer Wegovy for its members(per LLY,this would impact 200k Zepbound patients,but some of them could elect to pursue a medical exemption to stay on Zepbound,including 20%who previously received Wegovy).Within GLP-1s for obesity only Zepbound NRx share decreased from to 64%from 6

6、7%,and Wegovy increased to 36%from 33%(and see Exhibit 8 for TRx share).We previously lowered our Zepbound 3Q volume estimates to account for this dynamics;see our full 2Q25 earnings preview HERE.Furthermore,LLY IR noted on July 11-Lilly Direct did not ship on July 3 or July 4,so there were only 3 d

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