1、 EQUITIES TRANSPORT&INFRA.FREIGHT&LOGISTICS UPS Neutral from Underperform FedEx Outperform from Underperform The calm before the storm?3 JULY 2025 Sector Research Report Production time:05:33*(London time)Research Analysts&Publishing EntitiesResearch Analysts&Publishing Entities We may be through th

2、e worst of the tariffs news,but the headwinds have not disappeared Freight volumes have tracked positively in H125,despite the tariff-led dip in May.However,it would be optimistic to assume that either volumes or rates will prove to be exceptionally strong through H225.We continue to see an imbalanc

3、e of supply and demand in the sector,leaving us structurally cautious on the Freight&Logistics mid-term outlook.However,there is value in the space via heavily oversold names(FedEx;double-upgrade)or best-in-class growth and returns(DSV).Sub-sector ranking shows relative preference for Express with O

4、cean least favoured A combination of global trade headwinds,weakening supply-demand,a potential Red Sea re-opening and a downward trend in freight rates makes Ocean our least-favoured sub-sector.In third place is US Parcel(B2B structurally lacklustre,B2C headwinds from Amazon),followed by Airfreight

5、 where rates have normalised,but with de minimis change headwinds.This leaves International Express as,on balance,our preferred sub-sector,where muted growth has started to return.Estimates changes and vs consensus While our overall view of the Freight&Logistics outlook remains cautious,we have made

6、 some significant changes to estimates across our coverage.We raise estimates for FY25(ex-UPS)to reflect a positive H1 on volumes and freight rate volatility benefitting Maersk and the Forwarders.Beyond FY25,we lift estimates for DSV to reflect lower expected volume attrition from Schenker.Double-up