1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:09/07/2025 04:02:13 GMTDistributed on:09/07/2025 04:02:13 GMT9 July 2025Large-cap semicaps out of favour:Downgrade worries linger;lag vs US peersASMLs marked underperformance against large-cap US semicaps illustrates that there is significant nervousnes

2、s around ASML being able to grow in 2026 after out-performing WFE trends nicely in recent years.For example,KLA is up 47%YTD while ASMLs ADR is up only 15%.This is despite positive memory pricing trends,but in the context of clear setbacks at Intel and Samsung.We are more constructive as we feel inv

3、estors have lost sight of the LT margin potential at ASML.We see Q2 bookings of 5.5bn led by TSMC and ahead of consensus(4.9bn).For ASMI,FX-related risks are clearly greater into Q2 results and the CMD,but with some pointing to 3x ALD steps and 6x epi steps from the GAA transition,the rating is meri

4、ted.Broad-based semis in favour:Upgrades led by bookings strength;FX headwindsOf the larger broad-based names,with clear signs of bottoming out,we continue to like both ST Micro and Infineon,despite FX and risks of pull-in effects and from tariffs.ST Micro should benefit meaningfully from industrial

5、 strength led by a cleaner channel,especially in APAC/NA,complemented by a better Apple cycle.As for Infineon,we expect the company to halve the 400m haircut(10%of Q4 sales)for potential tariff headwinds to 200nm with idle costs unchanged.SMID top picks in hardware:Besi,Technoprobe,Comet,MelexisWe c

6、ontinue to favour back-end exposure such as Besi,Technoprobe and SUSS given structural tailwinds led by AI.On Besi,we would not be surprised to see the mainstream business seeing some pickup even if large hybrid bonding bookings look more likely to land in the third quarter.On Technoprobe,we continu