1、Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin WP/25/129 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not ne

2、cessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2025 JUN*We thank Chadi Abdallah,Jacqueline Deslauriers,Corinne Delechat,Rupa Duttagupta,Michael Gorbanyov,Ashique Habib,Ken Kashiwase,Jeff Kearns,Emmanouil Kitsios,Paulo Medas,Roman Merga,Lorenzo Rotunno,John Spray,Krish

3、naSrinivasan,and participants in several IMF seminars for helpful comments.The views expressed in this paper are those of theauthors and do not necessarily reflect those of the IMF,its Executive Board,or its Management.All mistakes herein are ours.2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/129IMF Workin

4、g Paper Asia and Pacific Department Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World Prepared by Tatjana Schulze(APD)and Weining Xin(APD)*Authorized for distribution by Paulo Medas(APD)June 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments a

5、nd to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:So-called“connector”countries have been argued to benefit from the US-China trade tensions,given their risin

6、g share in US imports.This paper draws an important distinction between trade reallocationcountries increase domestic production to substitute for declining Chinese exports to the USand trade reroutingcountries serve as one-stop place for transshipment of Chinese exports to the US.Leveraging granula