1、Allianz Research18 June 2025Cash back to shareholders or cash stuck to finance customers?American and European firms deal with trade war differently2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 14-18US corporates:from warehouses to shareholders wallets Page 19-21 Europes hidden bankersPage

2、 5-13 A visible transatlantic divide in Working Capital RequirementsPage 23MethodologyPage 22 Statistical appendix18 June 2025 Because of high economic volatility and uncertainty,Working Capital Requirements(WCR)increased by 2 days globally in 2024.Working Capital Requirements(WCR)rose by+2 days glo

3、bally in 2024,reaching 78 days the highest level since 2008 with no major signs of easing in early 2025.This increase reflects the cost of adaptation to high uncertainty and tighter financial conditions as trade frictions and recession risks on the horizon have affected turnover growth,payment terms

4、 and inventory strategies.This is particularly true for Western Europe,which stood out with a+4-day rise for the third consecutive year,while APAC recorded a moderate increase(+2 days).In contrast,North America posted a-3-day decline in WCR,marking a rare divergence.As of Q4 2024,35%of companies glo

5、bally had WCR exceeding 90 days of turnover(down just 1pp y/y),and Q1 2025 data suggests a slightly stronger-than-usual seasonal rebound(+8 days q/q vs.a long-run average of+7).The US stands out with a decrease of WCR by-3 days.Firms have been destocking(apart from a couple of sectors)to unlock capi

6、tal and redirect it to shareholders a very risky strategy in times of trade war.Despite a sharp rebound in imports nearly USD1trn in Q1 2025,up+27%y/y,US business inventories fell,indicating selective frontloading rather than widespread stockpiling.The pharmaceuticals and medical goods sector alone