1、I n 2021,we first presented our estimates of Chinese demand for new urban nhousing through 2050.However,our earl ier estimates did not account for the fact that investment demand in China coul d turn negative as owners sel l vacant apartments,and that the 2015-18 government-l ed shanty-town redevel

2、opment shoul d resul t in fewer demol itions in subsequent years.I n this note,we incorporate these two factors,al ong with the l atest demographic trends.Chinas fal l ing popul ation and sl owing urbanization suggest decreasing ndemographic demand for housing,al though decl ining famil y sizes prov

3、ide a partial offset.We cal cul ate that annual demographic demand in urban China wil l average onl y 4.1mn housing units per year in 2025-2030,compared to 9.4mn units per year in the 2010s.I t is striking that Chinas demographic demand for new urban housing l ikel y hal ved within a decade.Decennia

4、l census data show that the qual ity of Chinese residential properties nhas improved significantl y over the past decade.Part of the reason is the 2015-18 shanty-town redevel opment program,where the government hel ped finance and accel erate demol itions of run-down properties nationwide.Going forw

5、ard,the governments focus has shifted toward renovation rather than demol ition.We estimate that the average demol ition demand wil l drop from 4.7mn units per year in the 2010s to 2.7mn units per year in the 2020s.A combination of high savings rates,l imited investment options,and rosy house nprice

6、 expectations l ed to strong investment demand for housing in the 2010s.Academic and industry research suggests that the home vacancy rate in urban China was around 20%in 2020(significantl y higher than the rate in the US and Japan).With house price expectations fal l ing,we expect an annual average