1、201017.8%8.7%6.7%10.1%318,61417,74721,07022,51220,70621,15524,20624,28521,52922,757484,479 86,393 96,356 100,293 110,226 115,394 27,601 20192020202120222023*20242025Q1GDP2025GDP+5.6%2024GDP+5.3%2024Q17,7805,9057,5827,7788,0988,0137,1827,7657,1287,9468,5017,5297,6197,9148,032534,423 30,004 32,147 31,

2、086 33,328 33,647 8,393 20192020202120222023*20242025Q12025Q1+0.5%2024+1.0%2024Q120237,8667,702624,234 24,118 29,487 29,694 29,217 30,912 7,002 20192020202120222023*20242025Q12025Q1+6.1%2024+5.8%2024Q120232,3791,7242,3492,9582,8972,8873,0033,2843,0683,0453,197759,160 38,849 61,278 55,220 61,438 63,0

3、22 64,640 80,720 74,297 83,171 68,755 75,547 81,454 81,103 84,416 79,107 72,827 77,623 77,980 62,629 82,139 76,208 64,814 72,159 78,600 20192020202120222023202420252025Q1+2.6%2024+5.4%2024Q12023GDP44.1%69.1%83,45912,160(+5.5%)7,199(-20.9%)4,1941,345(-2.3%)1,856(-3.6%)1,365(-9.5%)11,247(+5.7%)3,590(-

4、3.3%)(+5.8%)(+5.6%)2005-20102015-20209一线城市2800,3500)12000,18000)2100,2800)9000,12000)1400,2100)6000,9000)700,1400)3000,6000)0,700)0,3000)卫星城市二线城市三线城市珠三角城市群长三角城市群成渝城市群2024年人口数量(万人)2024年社零总额(亿元)102024202414,092(-2.6%)2,183(-1.19)3,704(-3.1%)1,364(+0.00)1,576(+4.8%)547(-2.01)1,769(+8.3%)905(-5.91)11021

5、2030060090020212022202320242025Q1“202550%60%70%80%90%100%0.500.700.901.101.301.5020212022202320242025Q1:17.7%5711.613500.00,1,200.00200.00,500.00)100.00,200.00)0.00,100.00)141.50,2.501.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00):0.963/4-1.2 pp1590.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)3/4202532537,00041.05.0

6、%-5.5%20249ESR99900,00058.0N/A20248420%4498,0002.79N/A2024233495,21520.06.00%-6.50%202311ESR55331,40023.0ESR5.00%-5.50%20231044219,1199.46.00%20233N/A450,00023.06.00%+2023290%175,0005.1N/A20227ESR9873,00049.0ESRGIC/ESR5.30%-5.80%20226SC Capital-3210,7708.5SC C