1、WEIGHING THE GLP-1 MARKETISSUE 127|Apr il 12,2024|11:55 AM EDT“$O$Global Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to Goldman Sachs Group,I

2、nc.The newest gener at ion of GLP-1 dr ugs ar e being hail ed by some as“mir acl e dr ugs”for t he t r eat ment of obesit y.But GLP-1s ar e expensive,insur ance cover age is l imit ed,and not ever yone wit h obesit y can or want s t o t ake t hem.So,how l ar ge is t he act ual addr essabl e mar ket

3、for GLP-1s?Obesit y physician Dr.Fat ima Cody St anfor d ar gues t hat it s onl y a fr act ion of t he 1 bil l ion peopl e wor l dwide who have obesit y.GS Chr is Shibut ani agr ees t hat many fact or s wil l const r ain mar ket size in t he near-t o-medium t er m,t hough he expect s t he gl obal GL

4、P-1 mar ket t o gr ow t o$100bn in 2030,and pot ent ial l y much higher if mor e insur er s cover GLP-1s and t hey show pr omise in t r eat ing ot her diseases,which GS John Mar shal l est imat es coul d r esul t in a 70mn US pat ient popul at ion.We t hen assess t he impl icat ions for indust r ies

5、,t he economy,and fiscal heal t h,wit h GS Joseph Br iggs finding t hat wider GLP-1 adopt ion coul d meaningful l y boost US gr owt h whil e MI T s Jonat han Gr uber war ns t hat expanding insur ance cover age for GLP-1s woul d cost t he US gover nment a st agger ing sum.“I NTERVI EWS WI TH:Dr.Fatim

6、a Cody Stanford,Obesit y medicine physician and scient ist,Massachuset t s Gener al Hospit al and Har var d Medical School Jonathan Gruber,Pr ofessor of Economics and Chair man of t he Economics Depar t ment,MI T Chris Shibutani,US Biophar maceut ical s Equit y Resear ch Anal yst,Gol dman Sachs THE