1、AI2027Daniel KokotajloScott AlexanderThomas LarsenEli LiflandRomeo DeanOriginally published onApril 3rd 2025 on AI-AI FuturesProjectDesign byLightcone InfrastructureAI 2027We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will beenormous,exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.The

2、 CEOs of OpenAI,Google DeepMind,and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrivewithin the next 5 years.Sam Altman has said OpenAI is setting its sights on“superintelligence in the true sense of the word”and the“glorious future.”Its tempting to dismiss this as just hype.This would be a grave mi

3、stakeit isnot just hype.We have no desire to hype AI ourselves,yet we also think it isstrikingly plausible that superintelligence could arrive by the end of the decade.If were on the cusp of superintelligence,society is nowhere near prepared.Very few people have even attempted to articulate any plau

4、sible path throughthe development of superintelligence.We wrote AI 2027 to fill that gap,providing much needed concrete detail.We would love to see more work likethis in the world,especially from people who disagree with us.We hope thatby doing this,well spark a broad conversation about where were h

5、eaded andhow to steer toward positive futures.We wrote this scenario by repeatedly asking ourselves“what would happennext”.We started at the present day,writing the first period(up to mid-2025),then the following period,until we reached the ending.We werent trying toreach any particular ending.We th

6、en scrapped it and started over again,manytimes,until we had a finished scenario that we thought was plausible.Afterwe finished the first ending the racing endingwe wrote a new alternativebranch because we wanted to also depict a more hopeful way things could end,starting from roughly the same premi