1、贸易，增长与地缘政治全球与区域市场的未来趋势安珂(Anke Schrader)中国总监经济学人企业组织2025年5月“”美国保护主义的新时代令全球贸易前景高度不确定，其关税行动的速度、强度和反复无常加剧了这一态势。不确定性对市场、商业和贸易危害极大它会抑制资本支出与消费。我们预测2025年全球实际GDP增速将降至1.9%这将是2020年以来最疲弱表现。2025GDP%()拉美、中东和撒哈拉以南非洲的竞争市场面临较低关税。亚洲国家将难以找到替代市场来填补美国需求缺口。中国仍拥有足够的财政能力来抵消近期大部分关税影响但具体效果将取决于政策实施情况。从长期来看，中国政策方向的制定将逐渐减少对双边贸易

2、关系状况的参考。Trade:direct US-China trade will tumble,but that loss will be offset in part by trade diversion effects,whereby indirect trade increases,in the form of transshipment or processing trade via third countries.Investment:uncertainties will prompt private enterprises to slash their capital expend

3、iture.These companies will also divert investment overseas rather than allocating it domestically,as third countries are still likely to enjoy cost advantages because of lower tariffs.Consumption:consumption will be hit by the tendency towards precautionary savings at times of elevated uncertainty,a

4、nd then through losses in income and employment.2025GDP2025世界将形成复杂的多极化格局多个权力与影响力中心并存，且联盟关系不断变化。中国已形成多级发展经济格局各区域经济体呈现出不同的机遇与挑战。鉴于增长前景和相对较低的关税负担，东盟始终是中国企业走出去的关键市场。“(TRI)”10中国对外直接投资正经历战略与目的地的双重转变。-2025110TEU11%-202540TEU73%-2025240TEU18%20252027202625002035-11102028 700SRT5030002029600020301.3530002030

5、5000 2029260PPAP20279020306013002025202220272025713000/GTCCAEO/AEO/HSAEOQHSE -IA5IA5TH9TH9A01A01KO1KO1A16*A16*SH3SH3SH3SH3A02A02/SV1/IA5/TH9/KO1/SH3SV1/IA5/TH9/KO1/SH3:IAS A01/A02/A16*:A01/A02/A16*:A01/A02/A16*A01/A02/A16*2/SV1SV1100100030 12/4-AMPT AMPT VASVAS72351520542021 350002019-2022+30FFWIATA

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