新的地缘经济秩序？2025年的战略风险与机遇.pdf

1、Navigating Alliances in a Fragmenting WorldEuropes Strategic Balancing ActThe worriesThe worriesThe European response=TACTICSOfficial statementsMedia statements Germany has taken a firm but measured stance.support a firm,unified EU counterstrategy,tempered with a hope that diplomacy or U.S.domestic

2、pressure might yet defuse the conflictFrance backs a strong EU counter-responsecalls for a robust European response,counter-tariffs on U.S.goods like“tech titans”and agricultural productsItaly acknowledges the serious threat,favors a cautious approach to avoid escalation.spotlighting Italys internal

3、 debate and Melonis efforts to reconcile her Atlanticist instincts with national economic interestsIreland voiced grave concerns about the tariffs impactanxious realism:acknoledges the special relation with the US but Irelands best hope is a united EU front strong enough to force the U.S.back to neg

4、otiationsThe UK prefers diplomacy to retaliation(calm tone)urges the government to strike a balance between solidarity with Europe and pragmatism in dealing one-on-one with Washington-alliances(with either the EU or US)could shield the UK from the worst of the falloutDifferent perspectives European

5、focus vs.American focusRe-defining the basics Economics vs.ideology Destructuring vs.protectionThe challenge beyond trade:preserving the corepreserving the core The geoeconomic threat assessment for business managementThe geoeconomic threat assessment for business managementsupply chainvalue chainre

6、sources access/mix(energy,critical minerals,etc.)human resource access(unemployment=labor shortages)political fragmentation(social complexity)security challenges(cyber threats)production chainThe European view on global economy Conflicts di