1、ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOKQ1 REPORTData up to,including,Q3 202420252026February 2025economic and steel market outlook 2025-2026first quarter report3EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe negative trend in the steel market which began in the second half of 2022 has continued up to the third quarter of 2024.The

2、current downturn in EU apparent steel consumption,reflecting poor demand conditions,began in the second quarter of 2022,due to war-related disruptions,along with unprecedented rises in energy prices and production costs.Demand conditions have been worsening considerably since the second half of 2022

3、,and this negative cycle has continued until the third quarter of 2024,mainly as a result of growing global economic uncertainty,higher interest rates before recent policy rate cuts were implemented-and overall manufacturing weakness.The dire consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy sh

4、ock on steel-using industries,along with worsened overall economic outlook,triggered a severe recession(-8%)already in 2022.These protracted downside factors further impacted apparent steel consumption in 2023,resulting in another annual drop(-6%).This represented the fourth annual recession in the

5、last five years.In 2024,against expectations of more favourable developments in the industrial outlook and improvement in steel demand earlier this year,apparent steel consumption is set to experience another drop,more severe than previously foreseen(-2.3%,formerly-1.8%).In 2025,apparent steel consu

6、mption is projected to recover at a slower pace than our previous outlook(+2.2%vs.+3.8%),conditional on a positive evolution of the industrial outlook and easing global tensions,which are unpredictable at the moment.Apparent steel consumption is set to experience another drop,more severe than previo