1、Allianz Research20 May 2025Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025Trade war,trade deals and their impacts on companies2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5 Executive SummaryPage 9-10More than half of exporters expect longer payment terms in 2025Page 11-15 Coping mechanisms:frontloading,rerouting,passing on hig

2、her costs and diversifyingPage 6-8 Unpredictable trade policies dent exporters confidencePage 18-21The trade war is creating opportunistic friendshoring:the Europe-Asia rapprochement Page 22-25 Can the Latin American exception hold?Page 16-17 US-China derisking is likely to continue,despite the 90-d

3、ay trade dealPage 26-27 Appendix20 May 2025 The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters confidence:42%of exporting companies now anticipate turnover to decline between-2%and-10%over the next 12 months compared to fewer than 5%before“Liberation Day”.Conducted across approximately 4,5

4、00 companies in China,France,Germany,Italy,Poland,Singapore,Spain,the UK and the US in two waves over March and April 2025,the Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that close to 60%of firms expect a negative impact from the full-fledged trade war initiated by the Trump administration on 2 April,also

5、called“Liberation Day”.Less than half of companies expect positive export growth,compared to 80%before“Liberation Day”.Production could also be hit,with 27%of firms saying that they could stop production temporarily as FX volatility exacerbates the cost of higher tariffs,and 32%intend to stop import

6、s or offshore production to avoid delays or increased costs.In terms of investment outlook,companies are increasingly focusing on operational efficiency and cost-cutting,with 45%of German firms prioritizing these measures post“Liberation Day”.Conversely,77%of Chinese firms are looking to diversify i