1、1 Global Outlook 2025 Group Economics|22 November 2024 Macro Research Team|Contact:Bill Diviney+31-(0)20-343-5612| The year of the tariff The return of president Trump is likely to mean a significant rise in US import tariffs in 2025.China will bear the brunt,but Europe will also be hit,leading to a

2、 sharp slowdown later in the year Tariffs threaten the nascent recoveries in domestic demand in the eurozone and China,while in the US,deregulation and tax cuts will help blunt the real income shock from tariff rises Inflation in the US is expected to reaccelerate,but to fall below the 2%target in t

3、he eurozone All of this is likely to drive a divergence in Fed&ECB policy,with slower and fewer Fed rate cuts,and the ECB deposit rate falling to 1%.This will push the euro to parity vs the dollar in the course of 2025.We need to talk about China:In a two-part special we tackle Europes complex relat

4、ionship with China Regional Outlooks:Ahead of the tariff shock,domestic demand is recovering in the Eurozone and the Netherlands,while snap elections in Germany are an opportunity for a step-change in fiscal policy The US economy has remained resilient,but vulnerabilities and policy uncertainty pose

5、 significant risks China is better prepared for Trump than it was in 2018,but growth is still expected to slow materially Global View:2025 is likely to be a year of major change In 2025,China will usher in the Year of the Snake.According to eastern lore,the snake is associated with wisdom,charm,eleg

6、ance,and transformation.The snake has rather different associations in western culture,but transformation not necessarily of the positive sort looks set to be an apt description for the coming year.The return of president Trump to the White House is already sending geopolitical shockwaves,well befor