1、 4 December 20244 December 2024 Key pointsKey points Global growth looks set to continue its 2024 pace of 3.2%in 2025,before easing in 2026 to 2.9%Trumps policies will determine the US outlook,but are uncertain for now.On balance these look set to weigh on growth in 2026.China is likely to need ongo

2、ing stimulus to deliver a managed decline.Eurozone activity should improve,but US trade tensions would be a risk.And Emerging economies(EM)will also be vulnerable.Inflation is likely to be impacted by US policies,restricting the Feds space to ease.This could slow the pace of disinflation more broadl

3、y and in EMs also slowing monetary easing.European inflation looks set to fall further and we expect the ECB to cut rates below neutral next year.Broader risks will surround geopolitical developments,including developments in Ukraine,the Middle East and with China.From the Macro Research teamFrom th

4、e Macro Research team With contributionWith contributions s from:from:Chris IggoChris Iggo AXA IM Core Investments CIO Outlook 2025-2026 Trump-starting the global economy 4 December 20244 December 2024 2 Table of contentsTable of contents Macro Macro outlook 2025outlook 2025 DivergenceDivergence 3 3

5、 By Gilles Moc Investment Strategy Outlook Investment Strategy Outlook Shifts in the balance of risk and returnShifts in the balance of risk and return 5 5 By Chris Iggo Summary Summary TrumpTrump-starting the global economystarting the global economy 7 7 By David Page US US Second Term TrumpSecond

6、Term Trump 9 9 By David Page Eurozone Eurozone Slowly taking offSlowly taking off 1111 By Franois Cabau&Hugo Le Damany UK UK Gradual easing in 2025 but lags will keep BoE cutting in 2026Gradual easing in 2025 but lags will keep BoE cutting in 2026 1313 By Gabrielle Dickens Canada Canada reducing spa