1、Europe Equity Research24 March 2025J P M O R G A NLVMHQ1 25 sales preview and fine-tuning of estimatesNeutralLVMH.PA,MC FPPrice(21 Mar 25):602.50Price Target(Dec-26):650.00European Luxury&Sporting GoodsChiara Battistini AC(39-02)8895-J.P.Morgan Securities plc/J.P.Morgan Securities(Asia Pacific)Limit

2、edOlivia Townsend,CFA(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcApurva Vishwaraj(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedVictoria Saden(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcSpecialist Sales contact details:Olivia Petronilho-Specialist Sales-European Consumer(44-20)3493-Key Changes(FYE Dec)PrevCurRevenue

3、-25E(mn)88,85087,260Revenue-26E(mn)93,48791,978Adj.EPS-25E()26.7626.34Adj.EPS-26E()29.9829.71Adj.EBIT-25E(mn)20,62320,273Adj.EBIT-26E(mn)22,04921,810Style ExposureAhead of Q1 25 trading update(date TBC,we think around the 15th of April),we fine-tune our estimates on the back of recent industry data,

4、latest FX moves and discussions with the IR team.Overall,we trim our forecasts by 1-2%largely on FX.As we noted in our industry note coming out of FY24 reporting,we think Q1 25 should show no further improvement vs Q4,but possibly,in some cases,some sequential growth moderation given the ongoing sec

5、tor challenges stemming from the muted price/mix environment,American spend likely cooling off past the initial post election euphoria(and recent added volatility),the Chinese economic backdrop remaining difficult for now,and comps in Japan becoming very tough in H1.We think LVMH should be no except

6、ion,and hence we model Q1 Group sales+1%ex-FX,in line with Q4,including F&LG sales at-1%(unchanged vs our previous forecast post FY24 reporting).With still some negative risk to forecasts(we are MSD%below BBG consensus for FY25-26)and muted earnings momentum,we expect the stock to continue to trade