英国的财政通胀.pdf

1、Fiscal Inflation in the UKFrancesco BianchiJohns Hopkins UniversityNBER&CEPRQingyuan FangJohns Hopkins UniversityLeonardo MelosiUniversity of Warwick and CEPRIntroductionFiscal policy and real interest ratesWe study inflation and output dynamics in the United KingdomWe employ a model with partially

2、unfunded government debt(Bianchi,Faccini,and Melosi,QJE 2023)1At any given point in time,part of the outstanding government debt is unfunded2Unfunded debt is not backed by future fiscal adjustmentsInflationary pressureaccommodated by the central bankDebt stability achieved with a mix of fiscal adjus

3、tments and inflationWith nominal rigidities,unfunded fiscal shocks cause persistent movements ininflation and in real interest ratesA fiscal theory of persistent inflationWith respect to other shocks,policymakers follow a typical Monetary-led policyother shocks propagate as in standard business cycl

4、e modelsBianchi Fang MelosiFiscal Inflation in the UK1/23IntroductionEmpirical analysisWe augment a TANK model with partially unfunded debtDistinct implications of funded and unfunded shocks1Funded fiscal shocks:small increase in real interest rates2Unfunded fiscal shocks:large decline in real inter

5、est ratesMain results:Low-frequency movements in inflation driven by unfunded fiscal shocksPandemic:Large fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy1Quick rebound in real activity counteracting adverse supply-side shocks2Rapid increase in fiscal inflation3While actual inflation has declined,f

6、iscal inflation remains elevated as of 2024Bianchi Fang MelosiFiscal Inflation in the UK2/23Endowment economiesEndowment economiesBianchi Fang MelosiFiscal Inflation in the UK2/23Endowment economiesFisherian modelConsider a linearized endowment economy:rn,t=Et t+1,(1)sb,t=1 sb,t1+rn,t1 t(1)t,(2)rn,t