趁热打铁：非线性菲利普斯曲线下的最优货币政策.pdf

1、OverviewModelPositive resultsNormative resultsConclusionAppendixReferencesStrike while the Iron is Hot:Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips CurvePeter Karadi1,4Anton Nakov1,4Galo Nu no2,4Ernesto Pasten3Dominik Thaler11ECB 2Bank of Spain 3Central Bank of Chile 4CEPRNovember 14,2024The vi

2、ews herein are those of the authors only,and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European CentralBank,the Bank of Spain or the Central Bank of Chile.OverviewModelPositive resultsNormative resultsConclusionAppendixReferencesMotivationThe recent inflation surge featuredIncrease in the frequenc

3、y of price changes(Montag and Villar,2023)USIncrease in Phillips curve slope(Benigno and Eggertsson,2023;Cerrato and Gitti,2023)USOptimal monetary policy is mainly studied in models,in which the Phillips curve is linearand the frequency is held constant(Gal,2008;Woodford,2003)What does optimal monet

4、ary policy look like with a nonlinear Phillips curve andendogenous variation in frequency?How should CBs respond to a large inflation surge?OverviewModelPositive resultsNormative resultsConclusionAppendixReferencesCPI and frequency of price changes in the US,Montag and Villar(2023)BackOverviewModelP

5、ositive resultsNormative resultsConclusionAppendixReferencesWhat do we do?We use the standard state-dependent pricing model of Golosov and Lucas(2007)Calibrate the model to match frequency and size of price changes in SSDetermine the non-linear perfect-foresight dynamics under(i)a Taylor rule or(ii)

6、Ramsey policy(optimal policy with commitment),using a new numerical algorithmPositive analysis under a Taylor ruleNormative analysis:Ramsey optimal policyOptimal long-run inflationCharacterize optimal responses to shocksOverviewModelPositive resultsNormative resultsConclusionAppendixReferencesWhat d