加息时代的债务政治.pdf

1、The Politics of Debt in the Era of Rising RatesMarina Azzimonti(Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)aNirvana Mitra(CAFRAL-Reserve Bank of India)November,2024aViews expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect views of the FRB Richmond or CAFRAL.This paperUnderstand how time-varying risk-free r

2、ates r impact near-term sovereign debt manage-ment and default decisions in EMs.Political landscape affects the response to rising rates and associated default risk.We address two questions:1.How do rising rates affect EM when there is scope for corruption in countries with weakinstitutions?2.How do

3、 International Financial Institutions(IFIs)short-term lending programs affect thesedynamics?The Politics of DebtArgentinaBrazilBulgariaColombiaCosta RicaEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorGreeceIndiaIndonesiaKazakhstanLesothoMexicoPanamaPeruPhilippinesRomaniaRussiaSouth AfricaThailandTunisiaUruguayVenezuelaChil

4、eChinaCzech RepublicHungaryIcelandIsraelItalyKoreaLatviaLithuaniaMaltaPolandPortugalSlovakiaSloveniaTaiwanAustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyIrelandJapanLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwaySingaporeSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomUnited States-22Representation&Accountability-1 0 1-10

5、123Control of CorruptionLow ratedMedium ratedHigh ratedCountries with stronger institutions default less(better Fitch ratings).Risk free ratesBackEMs borrowing rates depend on risk free rate r.01234562020-Q12020-Q32021-Q12021-Q32022-Q12022-Q32023-Q12023-Q32024-Q12024-Q3Risk Free RateDate3 month T-Bi

6、llIMF Rate of ChargeLow Rates+Pandemic:the BuildupEra of Rising Rates:now what?Unusually low during Pandemic=cheap access to credit.Borrowing-20246810122018201920202021202220232024Borrowing/GDPYearAdvancedEM-AsiaEM-EuropeEM-LATAMPandemic+Low RatesPandemic+Low rates=large borrowing/GDP in EM.Debt pre